Why is anticipatory governance crucial in Timor-Leste's policy formulation?

Timor-Leste is facing issues regarding introducing policies with reduced risk of future harm. One of the issues can be distinctly spotted in the recent introduction of a policy to increase taxes on luxury items and imported goods, including cars, cigarettes, sugars, and sugary drinks, which has caused widespread speculation and concern among citizens. The government failed to anticipate the possibility of a sudden rise in market prices. 
As a country that practices a free market, the negative impact on the market was inevitable. Unfortunately, consumers have been the most affected by the rise in prices of goods other than the four items listed by the government, which has no clear justification. 
This issue raises the question of why the problem occurred in the first place. 
In Timor-Leste, the policy-making process follows the general principles of policy formulation adopted by countries worldwide. The government submits a proposed law, and the member of parliament or bench party submits a project law. It undergoes scrutiny by commissions established in the National Parliament based on its thematic area before it is questioned at the plenary. 
A well-formulated and scrutinized policy should involve every stakeholder responsible for the related area of a policy. This involvement ensures that the policy is formulated based on the best interests of its people, with a sense of good forward-looking to anticipate and reduce risks or future harm that might occur during its implementation. 
However, it appears that Timor-Leste's policy formulation process does not include an adequate assessment of potential future harm that a policy may cause. This lack of foresight could be attributed to the committee's insufficient expertise and advisory support during the policy approval process.
Another problem is the language used in most laws submitted for discussion at the National Parliament. 
The government and other stakeholders need to address these issues to ensure that policies are formulated in the best interest of the people and with a sense of good forward-looking to anticipate and reduce risks or future harm that might occur during their implementation.

To be continued...

Water Supply in Dili, Timor-Leste: Challenges to Clean Water Availability

Water supply is one of the major issues facing communities in Timor-Leste. Although the government has made efforts to provide water and sanitation services, significant challenges remain, including water scarcity even in urban areas, particularly during periods of drought as a result of climate change. This paper discusses the problem of water supply in the capital city, Dili, Timor-Leste, with a focus on the availability of drinking water and community resilience in accessing water during droughts. It also examines the actions that the government and related entities can take to address key challenges in future climate change policies.

The responses proposed in this paper focus on building community responsibility and resilience through empowerment and awareness-raising in water management, alongside strong government commitment to long-term fiscal policies for human resource development and infrastructure investment. These responses are expected to be implemented in the medium term (3–5 years) in Dili as a pilot project and then expanded to other municipalities under a long-term policy framework. This is essential, as the Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan Vision 2030 aims to provide 24-hour access to clean water and sanitation for the entire population, recognising that water is a basic necessity requiring urgent action.

Current context and trends

Water supply management in Timor-Leste falls under the National Directorate of Water and Sanitation and is supervised by the Ministry of Public Works. In addition to government management, several agencies and development partners are involved in supporting community access to water and sanitation. According to the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP), in 2011 access to water was 69% and sanitation coverage was 39%. While urban areas met or exceeded targets, rural areas remained underserved, particularly in sanitation (World Bank Group, 2015, p. iv). Rural areas achieved only 60% of the 75% target for water supply and 30% of the 55% target for sanitation (World Bank Group, 2018, p. 3).

Regarding urban water supply, the capital city of Dili presents an important case for analysis. As the economic centre of the country, Dili experienced population growth of more than 15%, reaching approximately 220,000 people between 2010 and 2015 (Population Census, 2015). Additionally, Timor-Leste’s tropical geography makes Dili particularly vulnerable to long dry seasons and droughts with minimal rainfall as a result of climate change, compared to other municipalities (WFP, 2020, p. 8). Population density combined with poor water resource management makes access to drinking water increasingly difficult, especially during prolonged droughts.

In response to water management challenges, the government has enacted laws and regulations to govern water distribution for public consumption, including Decree-Law No. 4/2004 on water distribution schemes and Decree-Law No. 38/2020, which established the National Authority for Water and Sanitation and approved its statutes (Jornal da República, 2020). Decree-Law No. 38/2020 also regulates coordination mechanisms at the national level for adopting exceptional measures during extreme droughts or floods. In addition to government initiatives, international agencies and development partners continue to support efforts to improve access to clean water in both rural and urban areas.

Challenges

Despite government efforts to improve clean water availability and achieve the MDG targets for urban water supply by 2015, clean water and sanitation remain significant challenges today. These challenges are influenced by community behaviour and limited resources, in addition to the impacts of climate change. Such factors may hinder the government’s ability to ensure sustainable access to clean water in the future, particularly during droughts. As noted by Shakiya and Yamaguchi (2008, p. 904), drought is a slow-onset natural disaster whose cumulative impacts may not be immediately visible.

Community behaviour contributes to water scarcity in both rural areas and the capital city, Dili, especially during the dry season. Evidence suggests that communities often experience exhaustion from accessing water and conflicts over water sources due to illegal connections or removal of pipes by others (ADB, 2006, p. 8). Moreover, there is limited practice of water conservation within communities, making it difficult to prevent wastage and exacerbating water scarcity during drought periods.

Lack of resources is another critical challenge in resolving water management issues. Although Timor-Leste has adequate water resources for development (World Bank Group, 2018), it lacks skilled human resources, infrastructure, and strong institutions for effective water management and maintenance. As Ryan (2019) notes in The Diplomat, water management in Timor-Leste remains inconsistent, as the country continues to rely heavily on international support for “knowledge, resources, and funds to promote water governance.”

Practices

Given these challenges, effective policy management practices are crucial for addressing future water scarcity. A forward-looking approach to anticipating future risks is essential, as future events are inherently uncertain (Boston, 2016, p. 12). In the context of climate change and its slow-onset impacts, government responses should focus on improving policy delivery and management processes.

To address challenges related to community behaviour, the government should consider involving communities directly in water management and distribution. Community empowerment, awareness-raising, and participation in planning processes are essential, as low levels of knowledge and weak water management culture present significant obstacles. Encouraging communities to articulate their needs and engage with government decision-making can lead to more appropriate and effective solutions. Increased community involvement can enhance responsibility, cooperation, and a sense of ownership, thereby improving the availability, accessibility, and sustainability of clean water in both the short and long term.

Addressing the lack of resources requires sustained government attention to long-term fiscal policies that prioritise human resource development, infrastructure investment, and institutional capacity-building. Coping with climate change requires systems with sufficient capacity to adapt (Ministry for the Environment, 2017, p. 18). Investment in human resources can reduce dependence on international expertise by equipping local professionals with the necessary knowledge and technical skills in water management and maintenance.

Infrastructure investment is equally important. The government must commit to future-focused investments that ensure high-quality water infrastructure. According to a joint assessment by the World Bank and other agencies, budgets for urban and rural water supply and sanitation in Timor-Leste are unpredictable and often insufficient, particularly for rural sanitation (World Bank, 2015, p. iv). To ensure infrastructure quality, collaboration among stakeholders—including technical experts, scientists, local communities, civil society, and relevant institutions—is vital throughout project identification, design, and implementation. Such inclusive management practices can enhance long-term sustainability and strengthen societal resilience to water scarcity during droughts.

Institutional cooperation is another essential component of effective water resource management. The World Bank (2015, p. iv) reports that district-level planning is often poorly coordinated and that communication between national and district levels is inconsistent. Improving cooperation among institutions and stakeholders is necessary to better identify and analyse future risks across social, environmental, economic, and technological dimensions (Boston, 2016, p. 13).

Conclusion

In conclusion, water scarcity remains a significant challenge in Timor-Leste, particularly as climate change contributes to prolonged droughts during the dry season. To mitigate climate change impacts and ensure water availability during droughts, the government must address challenges related to community behaviour and resource limitations. A forward-looking policy approach, supported by effective policy management practices, is essential to improve water resource management and ensure the long-term availability and sustainability of clean water for future generations.

 References

 Asian Development Bank, (2006). Timor-Leste: Community-managed water supply and sanitation. A Case Study from the 2004 Project Performance Audit Report for Water Supply and Sanitation Rehabilitation Projects Phase I (Grant 8185-TIM[TF]) and Phase II (Grant 8189-TIM[TF]) in Timor-Leste September 2006. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/evaluation-document/35926/files/community-water-supply-tim.pdf

Boston, J. (2016). Anticipatory governance: How well is New Zealand safeguarding the future? Policy Quarterly, 12(3), 11–24.

Jornal da Republica, (access 2020). “Creates the national authority for water and sanitation and approve the respective statutes“ (Cria a autoridade nacional para a agua e o saneamento e aprova o respetivo estatutos). http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2020/serie_1/SERIE_I_NO_39.pdf

Jornal da Republica, (access 2020). “The water distribution scheme for public consumption (Que aprova o regime de distribuicao de agua para consumo publico). http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2002_2005/decreto_lei_governo/4_2004.pdf

Ministry for the Environment, (2017). Adapting to climate change in New Zealand. Stocktake Report from the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Grouphttps://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Climate%20Change/adapting-to-climate-change-stocktake-tag-report.pdf

Population and housing census, (2015). https://www.statistics.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Wall-Chart-Poster-Landscape-Final-English-rev.pdf

Ryan, C. (2029). Timor-Leste: Why water is more important than oil. https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/timor-leste-why-water-is-more-important-than-oil/

Shakya N. & Yamaguchi Y., (2010). Vegetation, water and thermal stress index for study of drought in Nepal and central northeastern India, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 31:4, 903-912, DOI: 10.1080/01431160902902617

The World Bank, (2018). Timor-Leste Water Sector Assessment and Roadmap. Water Global Practice. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/433121521173685667/pdf/124329-WP-P163648-PUBLIC-Timor-Leste.pdf

The World Bank, (2018). Water Supply and Sanitation in Timor-Leste: Turning Finance into Services for the Future.

World Food Program, (2020). Timor-Leste, Agro-climate outlook. https://www.wfp.org/publications/timor-leste-agro-climate-outlook-perspetiva-agro-klimatika

NB: This is an assignment submitted to VUW (School of Business and Government) in 2020 which may still be relevant to current challenges in Timor-Leste’s water management system.